What is $1.5M worth?

Let me preface this by saying I have nothing against David Perron, or trading Magnus Paajarvi for him. I think Perron has a good chance to score 20 goals and close to 50 points as the Oilers 2nd line LW. Which is a nice upgrade on a player who has yet to establish himself as a top 6 forward.

Trading Paajarvi created a hole at LW3.  So what will it cost the Oilers to fill that position? They’ll probably trade an asset for a player that will cost about $1.5M to $2M. And possibly retain some salary. Where I’m going with this is, is that the Oilers asset management failed again July 5th.

Back in June, I suggested that Valtteri Filppula would have been a good fit for the Oilers. He eventually signed a 5-year $25M deal with Tampa, which is a bit expensive, but in hindsight still could have worked well for Edmonton.  I’m not saying he would have signed the same deal here, but maybe for an additional $250K/year he might have.

Valtteri Filppula is essentially the same player as David Perron or better over the last 3 seasons.

  • PPG: Perron .61- Filppula .63
  • Corsi: Filppula > Perron
  • Faceoffs: Filppula 1600+ over 50% > Perron 60 at less than 40%.

Are the Oilers deeper at LW?

  1. LW1- Hall
  2. LW2- Perron
  3. LW3- Smyth? Jones?

For $1.5M more:

  1. LW1-Hall
  2. LW2-Filppula
  3. LW3-Paajarvi  and keep the #39-44 draft pick?

I also believe Filppula would have provided a lot of help for Sam Gagner. Especially in regard to own zone faceoffs. With Nugent-Hopkins coming off injury the Oilers could have started the season:

  1. Hall-Gagner-Eberle
  2. Yakupov-Filppula-Hemsky
  3. Paajarvi-Gordon-Jones

They’ll probably start:

  1. Hall-Gagner-Eberle
  2. Perron- ? – Hemsky
  3. Jones- Gordon- Yakupov

So, for $1.5M would the Oilers have more depth short-term and long-term by spending money July 5th, or are they better off by creating a hole at LW3 and giving up a 2nd round draft pick? It seems obvious to me.

 

Left or Right?

The Edmonton Oilers biggest need is a bona fide #1 defenseman. Since the departure of Chris Pronger, Edmonton has tried to fill the void with Lubomir Visnovsky, Sheldon Souray, and Ryan Whitney with no limited success. It would be nice to add a LHD to compliment Justin Schultz, but Craig MacTavish should simply be trying to acquire the best defenseman available regardless of which side the player plays.

Since the retirement of Niedermayer, Lidstrom, and soon to be retired Chris Pronger, the best defenseman in the league play on the right side. Here’s a list of 10 of the best defenseman on each side in no particular order:

Left Defense:

  1. Ryan Suter
  2. Zdeno Chara
  3. Duncan Keith
  4. Niklas Kronwall
  5. Oliver Ekman-Larsson
  6. Jay Bouwmeester
  7. Brian Campbell
  8. Andrei Markov
  9. Keith Yandle
  10. Ryan McDonagh ? Dion Phaneuf? Kimmo Timonen? Alex Edler?

Right Defense:

  1. Shea Weber
  2. Drew Doughty
  3. Erik Karlsson
  4. P.K. Subban
  5. Kris Letang
  6. Alex Pietrangelo
  7. Brent Seabrook
  8. Dan Boyle
  9. Dan Girardi
  10. Slava Voynov? Justin Schultz? Kevin Shattenkirk?

Anyway, where I’m going with this is, it’s impossible for the Oilers to acquire any of the top 5 defenseman from either side without giving up one of their core forwards. So, what asset/s can they use to acquire one of the guys on the next tier?

  1. Sam Gagner
  2. Oscar Klefbom
  3. Darnell Nurse
  4. 1st round pick in 2015
  5. 1st round pick in 2014 or Ladislav Smid

Does it make sense to trade any of these assets now for one of the 7-10 defenseman? Not really. And do any of these defenseman significantly improve the Oilers chances of making the playoffs this year? Maybe a little, but it’s not worth it at that price.

The Oilers need to be patient and hope the kids continue to develop. As much as everybody wants to see playoff hockey in Edmonton, it’s not the time to blow things up for a marginal improvement on the back-end.

 

We wait. 

 

 

 

NHL Mock Draft

This is how I see the 2013 NHL Draft unfolding.

The Colorado Avalanche would like to thank the city of Newark and the New Jersey Devils for their great hospitality. We would also like to congratulate the Boston Bruins Chicago Blackhawks on their Stanley Cup championship. With the 1st pick in the 2013 NHL Entry Draft, the Colorado Avalanche are proud to select…

  1. Seth Jones - Colorado has one of the weakest back-ends in the NHL. Adding a stud defenseman with size, mobility, hard shot, and ability at both ends of the ice is exactly what the Avs need. Jones has franchise defenseman written all over him and we’ll see him in the NHL next season. 
  2.  Nathan MacKinnon - The Florida Panthers will be thrilled to land an elite center. He’s a powerful skater and tries to make something happen every shift. MacKinnon will be a perfect line-mate for Jonathan Huberdeau. 
  3. Jonathan Drouin – Tampa has the opportunity draft Martin Louis Jr. There’s simply too much offensive skill for them to take anyone else. Drouin’s play making ability will ensure Steven Stamkos will continue to score a lot of goals for many years.
  4. Sasha Barkov – The Preds haven’t had much luck drafting or developing skilled forwards. They’ll take their time with one of the youngest players in the draft. Barkov has a strong 200′ game and the potential to be a #1 centre.
  5. Darnell Nurse – Carolina have a decent mix of top 6 forwards. Adding Nurse will hopefully be the right fit to play with Justin Faulk on the blue-line in a few years.
  6. Sean Monahan – The Flames will start their rebuild down the middle by taking the player their rivals up the highway want to draft. Monahan played on a bad team in Ottawa, but his scoring numbers suggest he’ll be a pretty good player.
  7. Valeri Nichushkin – Edmonton hold the 7th pick, but I doubt they keep it. The team they make a deal with will be getting Ivan Drago on skates.
  8. Elias Lindholm - Buffalo want to build their team down the middle. The Swedish center had a good season as a 17 year-old, and will help the Sabres add depth with Hodgson and Grigorenko at pivot.
  9. Nikita Zadorov – The big Russian defenseman will a good partner to play with Adam Larsson in a few years. At 6’5″ 230lbs he skates reasonably well.
  10. Bo Horvat – His strong play in the OHL playoffs and Memorial Cup have moved him up most rankings. Horvat is a good 2-way center with decent size. He has the potential to be a 2nd line NHL center in Dallas which would be a steal with the 10th overall pick.

Of course this is just a mock draft and a lot of things can happen between now and draft day. The ‘wild card’ will be Valeri Nichushkin. If Tampa takes him 3rd overall, I suspect there will be some movement with the 4, 5, and 7th picks.

@NateInVegas

 

 

The 2014 Pick

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More magic beans?

The Oilers are in a postion where they need to fill a number of holes sooner than later in order to contend for a playoff spot in 2013-14. We’ve heard Craig MacTavish talk about his impatience and the possibilty of trading the 2013 1st round pick for immediate help plus other assets. Something I think is very likely to happen, but it wouldn’t surprise me if the 2014 pick is in play as well.

Let’s assume Edmonton trades this year’s #7. Ideally, they’re looking for someone to compliment Justin Schultz. A guy who can play big minutes, defend, and move/skate the puck out of their zone quickly. Can you say Jay Bouwmeester? Now I get that it’s unlikely he has any desire to play in Edmonton, and it doesn’t make sense to trade the #7 pick for a guy with only one-year remaining on his contract who just got traded for the #22 pick. Would it make sense to trade the Oilers 2014 pick (#14-18 range) if he signed an extention here? That makes a lot more sense to me, but still hardly makes them a lock to make the playoffs.

While I don’t think trading consecutive 1st round picks is a great idea. The Oilers are in a position where they probably have to consider it. They simply won’t improve next year by trading Ales Hemsky and Shawn Horcoff. So, on June 30th, if I’m Craig MacTavish I make a few calls about trading the 2014 pick before dealing this year’s pick. It is risky, just ask any Maple Leafs fan, but that’s how I’d approach fixing the blueline for next year. If the Oilers can get Jay Bouwmeester and Jake Gardiner I like their chances a lot more than using their draft picks and waiting for them to develop.

@NateInVegas

Oilers Moving Up

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Sasha Barkov already in Oilers colors

Edmonton GM Craig MacTavish has expressed interest in moving up at this year’s draft. The Oilers currently hold the 7th overall pick which is just outside where they need to be in order to draft a player they covet. I’m sure they’d like to move up to select Nathan MacKinnon or Seth Jones (who wouldn’t), but the odds of that happening are slim to none. Unless they’re willing to move one of their young core players plus other assets which is highly unlikely at this time.

 So, who would the Oilers trade up for? My guess is they’re very interested in Sasha Barkov who is likely to be the 4th or 5th pick. The Hurricanes currently have the 5th pick and are set at Center with the Staal brothers and Jeff Skinner. If Carolina’s interested in defenseman Darnell Nurse, and there’s every reason to believe they are, there could be a deal with Edmonton. A few things need to happen for this scenario to work:

  1. Tampa Bay need to draft Russian left winger Valeri Nichushkin.
  2. Nashville takes highly skilled winger Jonathan Drouin instead of Barkov.
  3. Assume Calgary drafts a Centre with the 6th pick.

I’m not sure what Edmonton need to include for a deal to make sense for Carolina. Maybe Martin Marincin? Or the Oilers #37 pick? Ales Hemsky? I really don’t know. But, if Sasha Barkov is available at #5, MacTavish better make a call. Of course this is just a hypothetical scenario. It’s more likely Edmonton will trade their pick for immediate help on the blue-line or a later pick.

Number #1

ImageWho will the Colorado Avalanche take 1st overall? Depending on which scouting report you look at, Nathan MacKinnon, Seth Jones, or Jonathan Drouin will hear their name first at the NHL draft in New Jersey. 

You can make an argument for each of these players, but only one of them can be the top pick. Hockey Prospectus has Drouin ranked #1. Central Scouting and Craig Button have Seth Jones listed as their top player. And Nathan MacKinnon tops the charts over at ISS. So, who is the best player?

Things changed in Colorado the moment they hired Patrick Roy. As Head Coach of the Quebec Remparts, Roy watched MacKinnon and Drouin light up the QMJHL. Specifically last year when Halifax rebounded from an 0-3 deficit in the playoffs to win 4 straight games against his team.

While the dynamic duo in Halifax posted similar numbers, I think Nathan MacKinnon is the best player now and will have the biggest impact in the NHL. At 6′ 183lbs MacKinnon’s lower body is solid and he’s such a powerful skater. His determination to make something happen every shift is what sets him apart from everyone else. MacKinnon’s ability to elevate his game when it matters most is also extremely impressive.

  • 5G 8A -13pts in 7 playoff games head-to-head with Mikhail Grigorenko
  • 5G-6A-11pts in 5 games at the Ivan Hlinka including a hat trick in the Gold Medal game
  • 7G-6A-13pts in 4 games at Memorial Cup including a 5 point game in the final

 

The Colorado Avalanche have 3 good centers in Matt Duchene, Ryan O’Relly, and Paul Stastny. If the Avs draft MacKinnon, I suspect they’ll start him at right wing to help ease his transition into the NHL. Playing on a line with Landeskog and Duchene will give him an opportunity to make an impact in his rookie season and for many years going forward.

Despite the Avs obvious need for a defenseman, even drafting one as good as Seth Jones won’t provide them an immediate impact. It might take at least 3 or 4 seasons before a stud like Jones reaches his full potential. Colorado is better off trading Stastny (UFA in 2014) or O’Reilly (RFA in 2014) for an experienced top-4 defenseman to improve their blueline ASAP. Basically, when you have the 1st overall pick, it’s hard to go wrong drafting the best center available.

@NateInVegas

 

VALTTERI FILPPULA A GOOD FIT FOR THE OILERS?

Image  GM Craig MacTavish will no doubt be looking to make significant moves this summer in order to improve the Oilers. One of the players available this summer is Detroit Red Wings LW Valtteri Filppula. There are a few reasons Filppula could be a good fit in Edmonton.

 

MacT has hinted that Ales Hemsky isn’t necessarily in the plans going forward. If the Oilers trade Hemsky, it’s likely going to be in a package deal to help the blueline. This opens a spot at right wing for Nail Yakupov to play with Sam Gagner on the 2nd line. Adding Filppula for the right price (around $5M) to play on that line works for a few reasons:

     Oilers won’t lose any offense

  • In the last 3 seasons Filppula’s PPG avg. is .63 which identical to Ales Hemsky.
  • He’d play the same Quality of Competition in Edmonton as he did in Detroit.
  • His TOI would stay the same.

     

     The 2nd line needs help winning face-offs

  • The last 3 seasons, He’s taken 323, 373, and 928 face-offs going 55.4%, 51.7%, 54.%

 

      Culture 

  • Detroit plays a puck possession style the Oilers want to emulate.
  • He’s played in 105 playoff games and won a Stanley Cup.
  • Learned from Yzerman, Lidstrom, Datsyuk, Zetterberg, and Babcock.

 

Do the Oilers need to get bigger and more physical? Absolutely. But I believe Filppula is a better fit, and would be more effective than Ryan Clowe or David Clarkson on the 2nd line. A 5-year deal for $24.5M is something the Oilers should consider. Anything over $5.25M/ is probably too much. 

@NateInVegas #Oilers #UFA #Filppula #RedWings